Six months ago we closed the first article on cautious hope: if inflation stayed low, wages might start catching up. Inflation cooled. Wages didn't. The final 2025 data is in. Here's the verdict.
The promise that wasn't kept
In part one we exposed the hidden truth of Lithuania's economy: from 2018 to 2025, real wages fell in almost every sector. Inflation looked like the culprit — especially the 2022 shock, when prices jumped 19% in a single year.
And we ended on an optimistic note. The logic was simple: inflation was a one-off shock. In 2024 it cooled to 0.9%, in 2025 it held at 3.4%. If that continued, wages would get their chance to catch up.
Six months have passed. The full SODRA statistics for 2025 are now closed. And we can test that hypothesis not with a guess, but with a fact.
The hypothesis failed.
In 2025 inflation was just 3.4%. This was the very "calm year" everyone had been waiting for. And it was in this year that real wages fell in 16 of 19 sectors.
Even the average wage across the whole economy — a figure pulled upward by the growing public sector — didn't rise in real terms. It slipped:
| Year | Average (nominal) | Real (2025 €) |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | €1,800 | €2,622 |
| 2022 | €2,051 | €2,325 |
| 2024 | €2,187 | €2,263 |
| 2025 | €2,250 | €2,250 |
In nominal terms the average wage rose from €2,187 to €2,250 (+2.9%). But inflation ate more. In real terms, the average worker was poorer in 2025 than in 2024 — and 14% poorer than in 2018.
The year in one line: 16 of 19 sectors
Here's the whole story of 2025 in a single table. Real wages are recalculated to 2025 euro values, so we compare "apples to apples." The last column is the change over one year, 2024 → 2025.
| Sector | 2024 (real) | 2025 (real) | 1-year |
|---|---|---|---|
| P — Education | €2,402 | €2,517 | +4.8% |
| O — Public admin. & defense | €2,709 | €2,772 | +2.3% |
| R — Arts & recreation | €1,695 | €1,729 | +2.0% |
| L — Real estate | €1,439 | €1,433 | −0.4% |
| A — Agriculture | €1,635 | €1,616 | −1.2% |
| S — Other services | €1,361 | €1,335 | −1.9% |
| E — Water & waste | €2,044 | €2,000 | −2.2% |
| K — Finance & insurance | €3,732 | €3,651 | −2.2% |
| M — Professional services | €2,383 | €2,331 | −2.2% |
| G — Trade | €1,944 | €1,893 | −2.6% |
| Q — Health & social work | €1,872 | €1,823 | −2.6% |
| B — Mining | €1,952 | €1,893 | −3.0% |
| D — Energy | €2,235 | €2,169 | −3.0% |
| N — Administrative services | €1,839 | €1,780 | −3.2% |
| F — Construction | €1,588 | €1,535 | −3.3% |
| C — Manufacturing | €1,847 | €1,783 | −3.5% |
| I — Hotels & restaurants | €1,215 | €1,172 | −3.5% |
| H — Transportation | €1,691 | €1,625 | −3.9% |
| J — IT & communications | €3,467 | €3,284 | −5.3% |
Source: jars.lt, SODRA, Eurostat HICP. Real wages in 2025 euro values.
Three sectors up. Sixteen down. And this isn't the distant 2022 with its 19% shock. This is the calm year, 2025.
The gap got wider
In the first article we wrote: the state took care of its own; the private sector did not. Over 2025 that chasm only deepened.
Look at who's in the black: education, public administration, arts. The first two are public-sector wages. And they didn't just grow — they accelerated:
| Sector | 2024 (nominal) | 2025 (nominal) | 1-year growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| O — Public admin. & defense | €2,619 | €2,772 | +5.8% |
| P — Education | €2,322 | €2,517 | +8.4% |
Teachers got an 8.4% raise in a single year — against 3.4% inflation. That's nearly 5% of real purchasing-power growth. Civil servants and the military got 5.8% nominal.
Meanwhile the IT worker, the trucker and the builder lost ground in real terms.
A small correction to the first article. Back then we used preliminary 2025 data. The final numbers are in — and they push the picture even further: the public sector grew even more than we reported. The private sector stayed put. In other words, an honest revision only strengthened the conclusion rather than softening it.
IT: the sharpest fall
If in the first article IT was the symbol of a hidden decline, in 2025 it became the symbol of an outright one.
For years, IT wages at least grew nominally — slowly, but upward. 2025 broke even that:
| Year | Nominal | Real (2025 €) |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | €2,924 | €4,259 |
| 2020 | €3,171 | €4,472 ← peak |
| 2022 | €3,353 | €3,801 |
| 2024 | €3,351 | €3,467 |
| 2025 | €3,284 | €3,284 |
Notice it? From 2022 to 2024 the nominal IT wage stood still — €3,353, €3,347, €3,351. Three years of freeze. And in 2025 it fell for the first time — to €3,284.
This is the first nominal wage cut in Lithuanian IT in our entire data history. Not "grew slower than inflation" — simply down in the raw numbers.
In real terms, an IT specialist today earns 27% less than at the 2020 peak, and nearly 23% less than in 2018. The sector that was a "salary heaven" for a decade became the only major industry where pay is being cut even nominally.
Who lost the most
After IT, the biggest losses of 2025 were at the foundation of the real economy — among those who employ the most people:
- Transportation (−3.9%) — 159,000 workers. Geopolitics, lost transit, a driver shortage. Wages again failed to keep up with prices.
- Manufacturing (−3.5%) — 215,000 workers, the country's largest private employer. A fourth straight year of real decline.
- Hotels & restaurants (−3.5%) — the already lowest-paid sector got poorer still.
- Construction (−3.3%) — a cumulative loss of a third of purchasing power since 2018.
These aren't niche industries. They're hundreds of thousands of people. And for them, the "calm 2025" meant one more year of falling behind.
Why didn't wages catch up?
In the first article we blamed the fall on an inflation shock. But 2025 took that argument away: there was no shock, and wages still fell. So the cause runs deeper.
The shock became the baseline
When prices jumped in 2022, you could expect a "rebound" — that once things stabilized, employers would restore what was lost. They didn't. Nominal wages were raised a couple of percent — and the new level was locked in. The 2022–2023 loss was never compensated. It simply became the new starting point.
The private sector has no indexation mechanism
The state indexes wages under political pressure — elections, unions, public attention. That's why teachers and civil servants got +8.4% and +5.8%. A private company faces no such pressure: if people aren't quitting, why pay more?
Lithuanian IT still sells time, not a product
Much of Lithuanian IT is outsourcing for Western clients. When global tech contracted and cut budgets in 2023–2024, Lithuanian firms couldn't raise their rates. Add the influx of juniors after the pandemic bootcamps, and supply went up. More people, less upward pressure.
What it means in practice
If you're an employee. To keep your 2018 purchasing power, your wage had to rise 46%. Check yours. If the growth was smaller, you got poorer in real terms — even if the number on your contract got bigger.
If you're an IT specialist. Your sector is cutting pay even nominally for the first time. "I'll outgrow inflation through promotions" no longer works by default — the market has cooled. The real rate today is a quarter below the 2020 peak.
If you're an employer. Your people really earn less than a year ago — even if you "gave a raise." This is a quiet risk: loyalty and motivation erode unnoticed, and it's the best ones who leave.
If you're a policymaker. For a third year, the public sector is shielding its workers from inflation. The private one isn't. The question from the first article got sharper: does Lithuania need a mechanism that doesn't leave 1.2 million private-sector workers alone against prices?
The verdict: not a shock, but a new normal
A year ago we asked: is the fall in real wages a temporary shock or a new normal?
2025 answered. It's the normal.
Inflation returned to calm levels — and private-sector wages still fell. For three years running (2023, 2024, 2025), most Lithuanians earn less in real terms than they did in 2021. This is no longer the aftermath of a crisis. It's how the economy is built.
The three illusions from the first article haven't gone anywhere — they've only hardened:
- Wages are rising. Nominally, yes. In real terms, they fell in 16 of 19 sectors even in a calm year.
- IT is a salary heaven. IT became the only major sector cutting wages in nominal terms.
- Everyone suffers equally. No. The public sector won even bigger. The private sector lost again.
About the data
This analysis was done on jars.lt — a registry of Lithuanian companies and a financial-analysis tool. Wage data comes from SODRA's monthly reporting (complete for 2025: 1.45 million insured workers). Inflation comes from Eurostat HICP.
Why is there no "business revenue for 2025" in this article? Because the annual financial statements of large companies are still being filed — at the time of publishing, roughly one in seven big players is missing. Totaling revenue from an incomplete picture is exactly the illusion this series exists to expose. SODRA's wage data, by contrast, is complete and monthly, so the verdict on it can be issued now. We'll return with the financials in the autumn.
Real wage calculation:
Real wage = Nominal × (156.0 / Year's price index)
Base year: 2025 (HICP = 156.0). Example for IT: €2,924 (2018) × 156.0 / 107.1 = €4,259 in 2025 money.
Analysis date: June 2026. Sources: SODRA, Eurostat HICP, Register of Legal Entities — all via jars.lt.