How real wages in Lithuania fell in nearly every sector over seven years — except the public sector. And why IT specialists today buy 22 percent less than in 2018.
The Number That Changes Everything
€205 billion. That's how much all Lithuanian companies earned combined in 2024.
When I first saw this number, I thought — impressive. In 2018, the same companies earned €89 billion. Revenue grew 2.3 times in six years.
But then I looked at inflation.
From 2018 to 2025, prices in Lithuania rose by 46 percent. The price index climbed from 107 to 156. That means the real economic growth was not 2.3x, but roughly 1.6 times.
Still not bad. But it looks different now, doesn't it?
And when you look at wages... That's where the story gets really interesting.
Inflation: The Silent Killer
Before we dive into sectors, we need to agree on one thing: nominal amounts and real amounts are two very different things.
Here's Lithuania's inflation history in recent years:
| Year | Inflation (HICP) | Price Index | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2.5% | 107.1 | Normal |
| 2019 | 2.2% | 109.5 | Normal |
| 2020 | 1.1% | 110.6 | Pandemic |
| 2021 | 4.6% | 115.8 | Starting to rise |
| 2022 | 18.9% | 137.6 | Shock |
| 2023 | 8.7% | 149.5 | Still high |
| 2024 | 0.9% | 150.8 | Stabilization |
| 2025 | 3.4% | 156.0 | Rising again |
2022 was brutal. Nearly 19 percent inflation in a single year — meaning your €1,000 at the start of the year bought only €840 worth of goods by year's end.
Cumulative inflation from 2018 to 2025: +46%. This means: if your salary hasn't risen by at least 46 percent over this period — you've lost purchasing power.
The Big Table: Winners and Losers
Here's the full table of real wages by sector. All figures are recalculated to 2025 euro values — allowing us to compare "apples to apples."
| Sector | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O - Public admin. & defense | €1,423 | €2,222 | €2,322 | €2,425 | +70% |
| P - Education | €1,471 | €2,060 | €2,033 | €1,967 | +34% |
| S - Other services | €1,294 | €1,385 | €1,189 | €1,148 | -11% |
| R - Arts & recreation | €1,608 | €1,795 | €1,615 | €1,505 | -6% |
| Q - Health & social work | €2,016 | €2,198 | €1,853 | €1,663 | -18% |
| N - Administrative services | €2,319 | €2,269 | €1,853 | €1,712 | -26% |
| M - Professional services | €2,947 | €2,978 | €2,439 | €2,179 | -26% |
| L - Real estate | €2,172 | €2,147 | €1,729 | €1,548 | -29% |
| K - Finance & insurance | €3,906 | €4,147 | €3,571 | €3,221 | -18% |
| J - IT & communications | €3,957 | €4,040 | €3,425 | €3,095 | -22% |
| I - Hotels & restaurants | €1,550 | €1,564 | €1,265 | €1,136 | -27% |
| H - Transportation | €2,213 | €2,178 | €1,741 | €1,534 | -31% |
| G - Trade | €2,427 | €2,410 | €1,957 | €1,753 | -28% |
| F - Construction | €2,182 | €2,115 | €1,682 | €1,488 | -32% |
| E - Water & waste | €2,547 | €2,451 | €1,966 | €1,793 | -30% |
| D - Energy | €2,566 | €2,542 | €2,039 | €1,833 | -29% |
| C - Manufacturing | €2,356 | €2,342 | €1,899 | €1,690 | -28% |
| B - Mining | €2,611 | €2,542 | €2,052 | €1,808 | -31% |
| A - Agriculture | €1,986 | €2,023 | €1,628 | €1,487 | -25% |
Source: jars.lt, Eurostat HICP. Real wages recalculated to 2025 euro values.
Winners: Only Two
Out of 19 economic sectors, only two increased real wages over seven years:
1. Public Administration & Defense: +70%
The biggest winner. In 2018, the real wage in this sector was €1,423 (in 2025 values). In 2025 — €2,425.
Why? The government indexed salaries. Especially after 2020 — we see a jump from €1,423 to €2,222 in just two years. This was a deliberate decision to raise public sector wages.
2. Education: +34%
Teachers and lecturers — the second winner. From €1,471 to €1,967 in real terms.
Again — this was a government decision. Teacher salaries were raised systematically, especially in 2019-2020.
The conclusion is clear: the government took care of its own. The private sector did not.
Losers: Everyone Else
IT Sector: -22%
This is perhaps the most shocking number.
IT has always been considered the wage leader. And nominally it still is — €3,095 in 2025, more than any other sector except finance.
But in real terms?
| Year | Nominal | Real (2025 €) |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | €2,716 | €3,957 |
| 2019 | €2,796 | €3,984 |
| 2020 | €2,865 | €4,040 ← peak |
| 2021 | €2,932 | €3,951 |
| 2022 | €3,021 | €3,425 |
| 2023 | €3,025 | €3,156 |
| 2024 | €3,055 | €3,160 |
| 2025 | €3,095 | €3,095 |
An IT specialist's purchasing power in 2025 is 22 percent lower than in 2018.
Even worse: the peak was in 2020 (€4,040 in real terms). Since then — only decline. Over five years, IT wages fell 23 percent in real terms.
Transportation: -31%
105 thousand employees — the largest private employer in Lithuania.
In 2018, the real wage was €2,213. In 2025 — €1,534. A drop of one-third.
The transport sector was hit from all sides: geopolitics, loss of Belarusian transit, fuel prices, driver shortages. And wages simply couldn't keep up with inflation.
Construction: -32%
The biggest decline among major sectors.
2018: €2,182 in real terms. 2025: €1,488.
The paradox: the construction sector grew — both in revenue and employee count (from 82K to 109K). But wages fell in real terms. Where did the money go?
Manufacturing: -28%
Manufacturing — the second-largest employer (214K employees).
From €2,356 to €1,690 in real terms. More than a quarter of purchasing power — gone.
Why Did This Happen?
Hypothesis 1: Inflation Was Too Sudden
In 2022, inflation hit 19 percent. Most companies simply couldn't react fast enough. When prices rise 2-3% per year, wages can be adjusted annually. When they rise 19% — it's a shock nobody was prepared for.
And after the shock, nobody "restored" the lost wages. Nominal salaries were raised 3-5%, but that didn't cover 19% inflation. The gap of 14-16% simply "disappeared."
Hypothesis 2: The Private Sector Has No Obligation to Index
The government faces political pressure to raise wages for teachers, civil servants, and healthcare workers. Elections, unions, public attention.
The private sector has no such pressure. If employees aren't leaving — why raise wages?
Hypothesis 3: Labor Surplus
Especially in IT. During the pandemic, everyone rushed into programming — bootcamps, retraining, remote work. More supply — less pressure to raise wages.
In 2018, the IT sector employed 37,700 people. In 2025 — 50,400. Growth of 34 percent. But revenue in the sector grew at a similar pace — only profits and wages didn't grow proportionally.
Hypothesis 4: Lithuanian IT Is Still a Service Sector
A large part of Lithuanian IT companies are outsourcing for Western clients. When clients cut budgets (and in 2022-2023, the global tech sector contracted), Lithuanian IT can't suddenly raise prices.
What Does This Mean in Practice?
If you're an employee:
Your salary should have grown by at least 46 percent since 2018 to maintain the same purchasing power.
If you earned €2,000 in 2018, you should be earning €2,920 today.
If you earn less — you've lost ground.
If you're an IT specialist:
Your real salary has dropped 22 percent since 2018.
If you earned €3,000 in 2018 and earn €3,300 today — you haven't gotten richer. You've lost roughly €600 per month in purchasing power.
If you're an employer:
Your employees are earning less in real terms than seven years ago. Even if you've raised nominal salaries.
This means: loyalty is decreasing, motivation is decreasing, and the risk of losing good specialists is increasing.
If you're a policymaker:
The public sector managed to protect its employees. The private sector did not.
Perhaps it's time to think about wage indexation mechanisms for the private sector?
A Few Silver Linings
Not everything is bleak.
The workforce grew. From 1.21 million (2018) to 1.44 million (2024). 20 percent more workers — that's good.
The economy grew in real terms. Even after subtracting inflation, 1.6x growth over six years is a solid result.
Inflation stabilized in 2024-2025. 0.9% and 3.4% — that's normal. If this continues, wages may start catching up.
A Story of Three Illusions
The first illusion: wages are growing. Nominally — yes. In real terms — no. 17 out of 19 sectors lost purchasing power.
The second illusion: IT is a salary paradise. IT still pays the most. But real wages dropped 22 percent. The biggest decline among "prestigious" sectors.
The third illusion: everyone suffers equally. No. The public sector won. The private sector lost.
About the Data
This analysis was performed using jars.lt — the Lithuanian company registry and financial analysis tool.
On the platform you can:
- Search information about 165,000+ Lithuanian companies
- Analyze financial data and SODRA statistics
- Compare sectors and industries
- View real wages adjusted for inflation
Inflation data is sourced in real time from Eurostat HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices).
Analysis date: January 2026
Appendix: Methodology
Real wage calculation:
Real wage = Nominal wage × (Base HICP / Current HICP)
Base year: 2025 (HICP = 155.99)
Example: 2018 IT wage of €2,716 × (155.99 / 107.07) = €3,957 in real 2025 money.
Data sources:
- Wage data: SODRA, via jars.lt API
- Inflation data: Eurostat HICP, via jars.lt API
- Company and employee counts: Register of Legal Entities